India IT-BPO Industry 2012 – Slow growth in 2013 & Outlook 2020

NASSCOM predicts slow growth for India IT-BPO Industry in FY 2012-2013 with a lesser growth rate of around 14% with revenues of around US$115 billion in FY 2012-13 compared to revenues of around US$ 101 billion at 15% growth it expects for FY 2011-12. For the first time India IT-BPO revenues will cross US$100 billion mark in FY 2011-12 and exports contribute US$69 billion (16.3%YoY) and domestic IT services contribute revenues of US$32 billion (16.7%YoY). In FY13, the IT and BPO export revenues is expected to grow at 11-14% (US$78 billion), while the domestic revenues are slated to grow by 13-16 %( US$37 billion) and reach a total of US$115 billion. Growth is primarily driven by new business models and disruptive technologies like such as cloud, mobility, analytics, social media, and vertical specific solutions. NASSCOM expects a 4.5% growth in the Global Technology spending in 2012 and further predicts that industry can meet the vision 2020 target of touching $225 billion by 2020.

Contribution of IT-BPO Industry to India's gross domestic product has gone up to 7.5% from 6.4% in 2008. SME sector contributed US$5 billion in revenues in current fiscal. Salary hikes could be in the range of 8-10% in 2012-13 as compared to 10-14% in 2011-12. IT Services segment grew by a CAGR of 16% in the last four years to grow to $40 billion from $22 billion in 2008 despite the economic problems in US and Europe. Indian BPO industry has a share of 36% in the global BPO outsourcing market, and significant revenues contributed by customer interaction business at $6.7 billion. Research and development exports went up by a CAGR of 12% to $10 billion ($7 billion in 2008), taking a 15% pie in the overall IT-BPO exports. NASSCOM also projected that the IT-BPO industry will add 200,000 jobs in 2012-13, down from 230,000 jobs in 2011-12 and 240,000 in 2010-11.

Challenges for the India IT-BPO industry in FY2012-13 include elections in the US, leadership changes in euro zone and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis and India's own policy paralysis like no road map on direct taxes code, goods and services tax, SEZ issues and increased tax activism. NASSCOM will relook at its forecast in October 2012 as the global macro economic scenario is still uncertain. Indian IT companies too have sounded cautious in their outlooks and hope that the market condition will improve from the latter part of this year. Source: NASSCOM & News Articles 

Global IT Spending 2012 – Key Trends

IDC predicts that worldwide IT spending will grow 6.9% YoY to $1.8 trillion in 2012 and  20% of this total spending will be driven by smartphones, media tablets, mobile networks, social networking and Big Data analytics. Forrester research says IT purchases will be $2.042 billion in 2011 and $2.154 billion in 2012, with the growth driven mostly by underlying economic growth and adoption of newer technology. Gartner forecasts IT spending will be $3.7 trillion (7.6% YoY) in 2011 and expects the IT spending to reach $3.9 trillion (4.6% YoY) in 2012. Gartner IT spending includes Telecom spend and without telecom spend, total IT spend is $1.53 trillion (8.4% YoY) in 2011 and $1.62 trillion (6% YoY) in 2012.

IT spending and budgets did not see any cuts in 2011 but there will be cuts in spending in 2012. There will not be any drastic cuts as IT spending is critical for ongoing business success, but spend scrutiny and conservative plans are expected. The worst case scenario of the total unraveling of the Euro crisis is that the IT spending will increase by 1-2% YoY. This growth will be driven by the emerging economies like India, China, etc. Due to the Euro zone crisis and US Economic slow down IT spending is expected to grow by 4- 6% YoY way below the current levels of 7-10% YoY. Europe will be most affected market compared to US market.

Hardware, Software, IT Services will see single digit growth in 2012. Spends on these categories will be slow as companies will try to cut down spend and will not go for up gradations aggressively. Only business critical spend will be made. Mobile devices such as notebooks, tablets, and smartphones will overtake the PCs. Mobile applications and operating systems revenues will grow and will even surpass the mainframes revenues and the competition is expected to intensify with major vendors like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Google coming into market with new offerings.

Cloud Computing will become more competitive as all the major vendors like Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, Google, etc are focusing on creating application platforms and ecosystems. Not only these major vendors but also Indian Outsourcing vendors are developing the cloud based offerings and platforms and are aggressively marketing these to the clients. According to IBM, the demand for cloud computing is on the rise as organizations look to expand the impact of IT to deliver innovative services while realizing significant economies of scale. IDC analysts expect that cloud spending will be $36 billion next year. M&A is also expected in cloud space where the major vendors look to buy smaller and medium players looking to add more applications and content.

Social media is on the rise and it is expected to be critical for the consumers as well as businesses. Businesses are looking for social media tools that help them reach their customers, track their reputation and feedback of the customer and use it internally in the organization to interact with employees. Social media analytics is expected to be a big business as the businesses look for tools and gain critical insights from these tools to determine the effectiveness of their marketing programs, call center performance and cross-selling initiatives. There have been acquisitions in this segment where larger vendors are buying out smaller niche players with good product and platform and integrate it in their core offerings.

According to IDC, Big Data is critical in 2012 as the volume of digital content grows to 2.7 zettabytes (ZB), up 48% from 2011. More than 90% of this information will be unstructured (such as images, videos, MP3 files and files based on social media and Web-enabled workloads) -- full of rich information, but challenging to understand and analyze. 2012 is likely to be a busy year for Big Data-driven mergers and acquisitions as large IT vendors seek to acquire additional functionality. Business Intelligence and analytics key to unlock the data and use the data in organizational decision making and strategy formulations. Analyzing in real time is the future of analytics.

IT and BPO will also see growth in 2012. Clients will look for offerings from vendors that will have significant impact on their businesses. Vendors are adopting cloud computing and also offering end to end platform offerings and are increasingly looking for outcome based offerings that will increase their margins. Indian Outsourcing vendors are forecasting and preparing for the volatile economic situation and are actively interacting with clients on regular basis. As of now vendors are positive but they are expecting definite headwinds in 2012 and are confident to tackle such scenario.

App stores with lot of new applications, intelligent devices with sensors, tablets, and smart phones are being launched and these devices and apps are creating new businesses and are adding more functionality and are being actively integrated by the large vendors in their core product offerings. 2012 will see many new offerings in terms of hardware, software and services and despite the tough and volatile economic environment, vendors will launch them.

2012 will be a tough year and businesses and clients both are cautious about the way that things will turn. The second half of 2011 was supposed to be slow and budget/spending cuts were expected but there were not any drastic cuts. There is a least possibility of a deep recession like the one in 2008 but the down grades and the economic issues will take time for resolving and this volatile economic situation is expected to continue in 2012. Businesses are having strong balance sheets and financially strong but the overall consumer confidence is low due to high unemployment rates and fall in incomes. Emerging markets play a critical role for keeping up the growth and how much these economies are affected by the Euro Zone debt crisis and US economic slow down is also critical fact and these economies can always look for their domestic market as the governments and businesses in these markets are investing in IT for good governance and citizen services.

India Outsourcing Industry 2011 – Focus on Healthcare vertical for Growth

Healthcare has become focus vertical for majority of the Indian IT Vendors. Most of the IT/BPO companies like Cognizant Technology, WNS, TCS, Firstsource Solutions, Genpact, Mahindra Satyam, Pacific BPO, CBay Systems, etc already cater to global healthcare industry. Infosys is looking at Healthcare vertical as one of the critical vertical for future revenue growth. Indian IT vendors have been slow in tapping this vertical as major focus earlier was on BFSI and Manufacturing. Indian IT vendors are making use of technology as a platform and offer their service offerings.

US is major market

US healthcare reform announced by President Obama provides a huge opportunity for Indian IT vendors and the policy focuses on controlling healthcare costs and provides universal coverage. The US healthcare bill, valued at US$ 940 billion, will provide healthcare coverage to 32 million Americans over the next 10 years. Currently US healthcare is estimated at $2.5 trillion, which is projected to grow to $4.6 trillion by 2020. Major opportunity for Indian Outsourcing vendors lies in revenue cycle management, electronic medical/health records (EMR/EHR), billing & coding and medical transcription. According to ValueNotes, EMR/EHR is a $20 billion IT outsourcing opportunity. Revenue cycle management (RCM) is a $50 billion market in the US.

Medical transcription business is estimated to be worth $25 billion annually and growing at around 15%. According to CBay Systems the size of the US medical transcription (MT) industry is estimated to be approx. US$17 billion for the year 2011 and is expected to reach US$21.2 billion by 2014. 67% was in-house while the remaining 33% was outsourced. CBay also expects the MT industry in India is expected to touch US$1 billion in 2014 from US$ 435 million in 2009. According to ValueNotes, the MT boom phase is over. Speech recognition technology, being used by most healthcare providers has resulted in shrinking the requirement of a medical transcriptionist’s skills to 10-15% of its original requirement. Medical transcription started in India 15 years ago and India is one of the primary locations and there are number of companies providing end to end medical outsourcing services in India.

Rising Indian Domestic Healthcare Sector

According to a report titled, “India’s New Opportunities- 2020” prepared by the All India Management Association, Boston Consulting Group and the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), the Indian healthcare sector is poised to reach US$ 280 billion by the year 2020, thereby contributing an expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) spend of 8 per cent by 2012 from 5.5 per cent in 2009. A US$ 36 billion industry in 2009 and growing at 15 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the Indian healthcare industry will reach the market value of US$ 280 billion by 2022. Indian IT vendors have to look for growth opportunities domestically as the US and European Markets are struggling to overcome the economic slowdown and European Debt crisis. The domestic opportunity may not offer huge profit margins as healthcare in India is mostly government owned but the rising private participation and Public and Private Partnership model is a good sign. State governments across the country have announced specific healthcare schemes sponsored by them for citizens and these schemes need to be monitored and properly implemented.

Indian Top IT Vendor focus on Healthcare Vertical

TCS has started looking at the healthcare vertical since 2009 and has seen annual revenues of US$ 395million in the vertical in 2010. TCS’ Q1 2011 Healthcare and Life Sciences revenue was at US$ 119 million. TCS has been gaining traction in this vertical.

Infosys does not report the healthcare revenues separately which highlights the fact that the company does not have much exposure in this vertical. To overcome this, company is looking for acquisitions in this vertical in US and Europe. Market rumors indicate the company is looking to acquire the Thomson Reuters Health Care vertical business in US.

Wipro healthcare vertical revenues for 2010 were US$429 million. Wipro is looking at healthcare as momentum vertical for growth and is planning to expanding its relationship with seven existing healthcare clients and looking to add at least two new clients on a quarterly basis.

Cognizant is the undisputable leader in healthcare market with more than US$ 1.17 billion in revenues. Cognizant owns IMS Health, which has a strong base in the healthcare practice. Cognizant provides solutions to 27 of the top 30 pharmaceutical companies; nine out of the top 10 biotech companies; nine out of the top 10 US health plans and 12 of the top 20 medical devices companies.

HCL technologies annual revenues from healthcare vertical in 2010 were US$252 million. Healthcare Informatics’ magazine has ranked the ‘Healthcare Practice’ division of HCL Technologies as the 39th largest healthcare company by revenue in the US in 2011.

Smaller players in the market like Firstsource, Genpact etc and pure play MT players like CBay, Pacific BPO also are focusing on Healthcare BPO market. These players have realized that the growth lies in the other than MT market i.e. Revenue cycle management, electronic medical/health records, and coding. These players are also competing with the bigger players in the market for the revenue share.

Healthcare vertical – Growth Driver

Indian IT vendors have to look for growth opportunities in healthcare as the US and European Markets are struggling to overcome the economic slowdown and European Debt crisis and the growth drivers till now BFSI & manufacturing verticals are slowing down due to the slowdown and debt crisis. Apart from the US healthcare policy, healthcare spend is also expected to increase in UK and India which also presents a growth opportunity. Mergers & Acquisitions are expected in this vertical as many big players in the Indian IT industry like Infosys are looking to acquire for jumpstarting revenues in this vertical. Other players like TCS, Wipro and HCL are focusing to increase their presence in this vertical and planning to add more clients in the coming quarters.

The ICD 10 conversion change by October 2013 is expected to impact the medical coding industry and is likely to spur a great demand for outsourcing and most of it may come to India. Technology helps in providing integrated solutions for the client’s healthcare needs, decrease healthcare costs, and improve efficiencies and Indian IT vendors with long experience in using such technology platforms are in a good position to provide the necessary services to the healthcare industry.